【NCCU Diplomacy News】

The last "International Relations Forum" of this semester was held at noon on December 18. Associate Professor Chen Zhen-Ru served as the host and invited Associate Professor Guo Xin-Guang from the Department of Diplomacy to share her research findings on the topic "One Water, More Sorrow and Conflict?" focusing on water resource disputes and conflicts between nations.

Guo Xin-Guang began by introducing the topic, quoting former World Bank President’s statement, "The wars of the next century may be fought over water," explaining that when countries share the same river, it could lead to competition for its resources. Water scarcity could undermine a country’s governance, causing internal turmoil and potentially triggering international conflict. In the late 1990s, discussions about water resources were dominated by Neo-Malthusianism or Neorealism, emphasizing that economic growth and technological development could lead to resource shortages and unequal distribution, significantly increasing the likelihood of conflict between nations. In contrast, neoliberalism adopted a more optimistic view, arguing that conflict was not inevitable, and countries could seek cooperation.

In contrast to past scholars who analyzed single cases or international river basins, Guo Xin-Guang took a national approach, combining discussions of both conflict and cooperation, and conducted a global study of water resource events using quantitative analysis. She explained two major variable groups: "water resource variables" and "national characteristic variables." Water resource variables were divided into supply, demand, and structural dimensions, including ten factors such as average annual rainfall, industrial water usage ratio, dependence on external water resources, and the relationship between upstream and downstream countries. National characteristic variables included geographic factors, national status, development, and population, identifying 21 variables such as national power ratio, differences in democratic systems, and per capita income.

Next, Guo Xin-Guang used Event Data Analysis, utilizing the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database (TFDD) to organize water-related events and then conducted a linear regression analysis using 31 independent variables to create a model that best explains the interaction between countries over a specific period. She pointed out that the study found that a single water resource variable alone could not explain interaction variation, but adding national characteristic variables significantly improved the explanatory power of the model. Overall, the more abundant the water resources, the higher the level of interaction between countries. Guo further explored the differences between cooperation and conflict, finding that cooperation in water resources was more influenced by national characteristic variables, while conflict was primarily driven by water resource-related variables. Interestingly, the peak of conflict did not occur in states of extreme water scarcity, but rather in situations where water resources were clearly insufficient, showing the impact of water scarcity pressure on national behavior.

Finally, after conducting a multi-level analysis, Guo Xin-Guang concluded that water resource shortages were indeed related to interaction variations, and international interactions would increase due to water shortages. The more strained water resources were, the higher the likelihood of conflict, although cooperation remained a possibility. More than water resources themselves, national characteristics were the key factors influencing water resource interactions, with economic and population factors being the most explanatory variables.

The three "International Relations Forums" this semester have all been successfully held and concluded. The forums will continue next semester. For detailed information about the time and topics, please follow the department's website announcements, and all faculty and students are welcome to register.

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Original Source: NCCU Campus News